Friday, November 12, 2004

The empire strikes back: Data and disinformation

Just when Professor Freeman's study gives new weight to the argument in favor of vote fraud, the New York Times and other major media outlets cover the story in a demeaning and unfair fashion.

The Times piece castigates bloggers as poor investigators, yet ignores Dr. Freeman's work, which we must now consider the key piece of research. How deceptive is writer Tom Zeller jr.? Here's an example:

And the early Election Day polls, conducted for a consortium of television networks and The Associated Press, which proved largely inaccurate in showing Mr. Kerry leading in Florida and Ohio, continued to be offered as evidence that the Bush team somehow cheated.
So much for the exit polls. We see no discussion of the historical reliability of exit polls (as opposed to predictive polls), both in our own past elections and in other countries. We see no mention of the fact that Georgia (the one Stalin came from, not the one Jimmy Carter came from) experienced the ouster of its president when the populace became furious over the disparity between exit polls and final results.

Look at that smarmy wording: "early Election Day polls..." This is a lie. To repeat a quote from Freeman I've used in a previous piece:

Regarding time of day variation, this paper does not refer to mid-day reports, but rather end of day data, which happened to be still available at midnight. But even if there were an early voter bias, is there any reason to believe that early votes would be skewed Democratic?
Folk wisdom used to hold that Democrats tended to vote after work.

The Times hopes to dismiss fears about the final tally by calling the exits "inaccurate." The only proof that they were inaccurate? The exit results did not agree with the final tally! Reasoning, thy name is circular -- at least at the NYT.

To reiterate a point I've made many times: Even if the exits were inaccurate, why did the errors work in only one direction?

The piece devotes much time to Kathy Dopp's well-known data on Florida's optical scan counties, which is something of a diversionary issue. We have been saying for a number of days now that the real problem concerns the GEMS central tabulator (mysteriously unmentioned by the Times), not the "Dixiecrat" counties. (As noted below, some have argued that the "blue dog" areas of Florida should have been less blue this election.)

Focusing on Dopp while ignoring Dr. Freeman constitutes a damnable attempt at misdirection. Zeller scores the bloggers for sloppiness, yet refuses to finish his own homework.

And if you thought everyone at MSNBC would function well on this issue, prepare for the shock of cold water on your face. NBC's latest, by Chip Reid, follows the NYT down the deception trail.

Voting irregularities are reduced, once more, to the blue dog counties in Florida and the infamous 4000-vote discrepancy in that one Ohio precinct. Reid refuses to note any number of other oddities in Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Pennsylvania, North Carolina (which may have to offer a revote) and elsewhere. Needless to say, this piece makes no reference to the 50,000 "accidentally lost" absentee ballots in Broward county, Florida.

Reid refuses to see the importance of pattern. As I keep saying: An individual problem can be dismissed as a glitch. But when error after error after error favors Bush and not a single "accident" favors Kerry, we've left glitch-land.

Note this beauty of a paragraph from Reid:

How about those reports of a vote for Kerry getting Bush? Election experts say it happened both ways, and in most cases it was voter error. And as for the early exit polls they were just that, early, and election officials say, wrong.
"Voter error"? The first-hand reports cited in previous posts detail how voters pressed "Kerry" repeatedly only to see the name "Bush" pop up. People don't make such simple errors eight or nine times in a row. I've yet to discover a single published report of the opposite scenario, in which a repeated attempt to vote for Bush kept coming up Kerry. The letter by Representatives John Conyers, Jr, Jerrold Nadler and Robert Wexler to the GAO refers to over a thousand cases across the country in which an unwanted Bush flashed on screen.

And just who are these enigmatic "election experts"? Funny thing -- the experts offering evidence of fraud tend to have names (not to mention credentials): Dr. Freeman of the University of Pennsylvania, Dr. David Anick of M.I.T., and Bill Hawkes, the former A.C. Nielsen Co. statistician. By contrast, the "experts" cited in pieces telling us to trust the tallies remain nameless phantoms.

To repeat: The exits were not early, and you can't call them inaccurate simply because they conflict with the final result. The fact that the disparities went in but one direction (and have done so in three consecutive elections) indicates that the so-called "actuals" are anything but.

There's a word for a piece on potential vote fraud which stipulates a priori that the final results are unimpeachable: Propaganda.
Comments:
I have written to NYT and forwarded this article to them, rebuking them for their shameful story and requesting that the issues raised be acknowledged. I suggest that others do the same.

National: national@nytimes.com
 
Not only did the "mainstream" media discount the reports of voter fraud in this election, but David Corn of The Nation Magazine made light of the various reports, and has decided that counting the uncounted votes would have made no difference, and the problems with the election were few. I was very disappointed to read his article in yesterday's Buzzflash.com. Made me glad I didn't renew my subscription.
 
I too fired off many letters to the Times, to Mr. Okrent, to that idiot Zeller. That piece this morning got my blood boiling. What a load of crap. I fucking HATE the Times now. I would cancel my subscription but I need to keep an eye on them. How dare they? Who pulls their strings?

-Ivy, pissed off voter
 
i want to know why the democratic senators and representatives, excluding the six who have come forward, are not raising all kinds of hell over this fraudulant election. don't we elect them to speak for us? isn't that their job? i am writing letters on the internet, passing around articles to my friends to keep them posted as to what to do. but, i say again, where are the people who are supposed to represent us? are they playing small to protect their careers? are they so afraid that the bushies will make sure they are not re-elected that they remain silent? i know that remaining silent ensures no guaranty for anything except the guaranty that democracy as we know it is over.
 
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I just hope that when the dust finally settles, that we all remember the MSM who showed courage in the face of adversity and support them. As for the others, I hope the lists of non-renewed subscriptions will speak for themselves.
 
It’s clear to me that the media which profits from a Bush administration that further allows Media Giants gobbling up more and more local newspapers, TV and radio stations will never fully inform the public of this or any other story that reduces their bottom line. We the people of the US need to target the bottom line of these Media Giants. When Sinclair was going to air a Pro-Bush Anti-Kerry documentary right before the election, the people contacted the advertisers of those Sinclair stations. The marketing managers of those stations were very rattled by this. We Americans need to coordinate our efforts picking a single network contacting them and their advertisers that the American people insist upon complete disclosure of the news regardless of whether it puts the Bush administration in a bad light, and if they will not we lead a boycott of their advertisers. One by one we bring the Media Moguls to their financial knees. Remember we the people are the ones who buy the products that keep broadcasters and newspapers in business. If we the people withhold our marketing dollars from stations and newspapers, they will go under. Ultimately we control their destiny. If they will not do their duty to fully inform the public on the news we can force them out of business. The FCC license these broadcasters have allows them to use the public-owned airwaves for free provided they use those airwaves in the public’s best interest. The Bush appointed FCC head, Michael Powell refuses to do his job to enforce that. So we will have to do it for him. Together we can force the newspapers, TV and radio stations to broadcast the news that we deserve, or they will no longer be in business. Case closed.
 
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I have a good feeling that future information that will come from further investigations on this matter will be so damning that more then a few heads will fall!
Ok maybe only one!.....I choose DIEBOLt'S CEO and then maybe that infamous Blackwell.
let's support the Democratic congressman who sent a letter to the GAO.
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A funny column by Mark Steyn pretty much says it all. Incidentally, I don't believe that Warren Mitofsky rigged anything. He has stated that he wishes his polls were right and Bush stole the election, but they weren't and he didn't. Mitofsky observes that his final estimation of Kerry's percentage was off by 2.5 % (an improvement over the exit polls of 1992, which overestimated Clinton by 3%), half of the disparity being attributable to sampling error and the other half to what he terms "enthusiastic Democrats." We're talking about very small discrepancies here, but still, I haven't heard a satisfactory explanation--other than Barone's and Morris's "slamming" theory--of Kerry's preposterous early leads in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. Mitofsky did explain why calls in Bush landslide states in the South were held up: as those states are uncontested, very few resources are expended on them. Consequently, the sample sizes are tiny and the margins of error can be extremely large.

(From the Chicago Sun-Times)

Election protest shows why Dems don't count

January 9, 2005

BY MARK STEYN SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST




Thought for the day, from a gloomy party member on the Democratic Underground Web site: ''Reality sucks. That's the problem. We want another reality.''

Well, they're doing a grand job of creating their alternative universe. At midday Thursday, as George W. Bush was about to be confirmed formally as the winner of the presidential election, the Rev. Jesse Jackson, described by Agence France-Presse as the ''Democratic former presidential hopeful,'' led 400 other Democrats in a protest outside Congress. Presidential-wise, they may be former but they're still hopeful. So they were wearing orange, the color of the election protesters in Ukraine, who overturned their own stolen election with an ''orange revolution.''

Now, on the one hand it's very brave for the Rhymin' Reverend to lead an orange protest. There is no rhyme for the word ''orange.'' Irving Berlin tried and the best he could manage was ''door-hinge,'' which just about works in certain boroughs of New York but would make an unreliable jingle for the Rhymin' Rev to bellow at Bush from outside the White House:

''We're here, we're orange

We're pushing at your door-hinge . . .''

On the other hand, what's he really saying? That Americans are in the same situation as Ukrainians? That their election was stolen? In Ukraine, the one side poisoned the other side's candidate. His face broke out and his hair turned gray. John Kerry's hair is fabulous and for much of the campaign his glowing moisturized skin looked like an orange revolution all by itself. He was obviously worried about being poisoned, which is why he nibbled so tentatively during his pretend lunch stop at Wendy's and only took a couple of sips when he was doing his impression of a regular guy drinking beer at that sports bar in Ohio. But he managed to dodge that bullet and Jesse Jackson never got a chance to channel Danny Kaye: The pellet with the poison's in the Brahmin with the Botox.

But I'm beginning to wonder if Karl Rove didn't manage to slip something into the whine cellar at Democratic headquarters. It beggars belief that Rev. Jesse on the steps of Congress, and the Congressional Black Caucus in the House, and Barbara Boxer in the Senate would start the new term with yet another reprise of the same old song from the last four years -- that Bush, the World's Biggest Moron, somehow managed to steal another election. That makes three in a row. The GOP's obviously getting better at it.

As usual, the media did their best to string along with the Democrats' alternative reality. For the most part, the press now fulfill the same function for the party that kindly nurses do at the madhouse; if the guy thinks he's Napoleon, just smile affably and ask him how Waterloo's going. So Alan Fram of the Associated Press reported with a straight face that Sen. Boxer, Congressman Conyers and the other protesting Democrats ''hoped the showdown would underscore the problems such as missing voting machines and unusually long lines that plagued some Ohio districts, many in minority neighborhoods.''

I think not. What it underscores is that the Democrats are losers. Speaking as a foreigner -- which I believe entitles me to vote in up to three California congressional districts -- I've voted on paper ballots all my life and reckon all these American innovations -- levers, punch cards, touch screen -- are a lot of flim-flam. I would be all in favor of letting the head of Bangladesh's electoral commission design a uniform federal ballot for U.S. elections. But that's not the issue here. What happens on Election Day is that the Democrats lose and then decide it was because of ''unusually long lines'' in ''minority neighborhoods.'' What ''minority neighborhoods'' means is electoral districts run by Democrats. In Ohio in 2004 as in Florida in 2000, the ''problems'' all occur in counties where the Dems run the system. Sometimes, as in King County in Washington, they get lucky and find sufficient votes from the ''disenfranchised'' accidentally filed in the icebox at Democratic headquarters. But in Ohio, Bush managed to win not just beyond the margin of error but beyond the margin of lawyer. If there'd been anything to sue and resue and re-resue over, you can bet those 5,000 shysters the Kerry campaign flew in would be doing it. Instead, Boxer and Conyers & Co. are using a kind of parliamentary privilege to taint Bush's victory without even the flimsiest pretext.

And that's sure to work, isn't it? Another two years of Tom Daschle obstructionism and Michael Moore paranoia. You don't need to run a focus group to know that's the formula that will sweep Dems into office on Election Day 2006, right?

A Democrat chum said to me on Thursday, oh, well, they're just doing this to toss a bone to the base. But they're running out of bones to toss, and the base needs a reality check, not more pandering. One reason why the party has shriveled away to Greater New England plus the ''minority neighborhoods'' of a few cities is that it's all fringe, and no mainstream. The base is out of control; the kooks still holding their post-election vigil outside one of John Kerry's mansions sound no loopier than the big-time senators. The party has no urge to move on from moveon.org.

I say all this -- takes out onion and starts to peel -- more in sorrow than in anger. Two plausible parties are necessary for a functioning democracy, especially in war, especially in a long war which will inevitably have to be fought by presidents both Republican and Democrat. The Dems might get lucky. The GOP might nominate some freaky goofball in '08, and the other fellow will win by default. But, as the 2004 field reminded us, this isn't a party exactly brimming with talent and fresh faces. And, as for ideas, when was the last time you heard a fresh policy from a Democrat? The serious arguments about war, social security, immigration and pretty much everything else are all within factions of the right. The Democrats' only contribution is to insist that someone in Halliburton has figured out a way to get the touch-screen voting machines to make Democrats' votes vanish. Democrats' votes are vanishing because Democrat voters are vanishing because Democrat intellectual energy has all but vanished. Or as Republican Congresswoman Deborah Pryce summed up Thursday's Boxer rebellion: ''Their objection is a front for their lack of ideas.''





Copyright © The Sun-Times Company
All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
 
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7(m) Microloan Program

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